Monday, April 19, 2010

Broken Support Backtest vs. Support Trend

Here is a chart update of the 60 minute chart. The structure down IMHO is that of an A,B,C down ending mid day today with a retrace up to our current levels that can go as far as 1202~ish for a "B" wave up here. As you can see in the chart below, the support trend was broken and looks to be retested. The flatter support tend still seems to be held today as well. This looks like a very solid EWP structure and the turns are right at critical trends. I'm keeping an eye on these trends very closely. The Daily is at key support zones on the indicators as well. CCI(20) near 50, RSI near 60. This is whipsaw territory, so I'm keeping my short position with extreme caution here. I could of sold at the 1183 bottom, clear bullish divergence and a solid count down to make a full correction of the entire down movment structure. Were in the fib battle zone to define the next large move. I'm in high risk here knowing the 1183 trend break with bullish divergence was a pivot point. I need to get out of my short as a rule to the system (divergence break on the daily) and I'm still trying to get out with the least amount of damage. I'm not convinced that don't get another leg down here pushing well below 1180 making the trade break-even at that point (and no that is not why i'm holding, that's the biggest mistake traders hold positions). The risk/reward is the we get a "C" or "3" down here which is the real payday of a trade weathing the "A/1" and "B/2" madness. I'm expecting to see very impulsive waves down here and will exit if we don't establish a new powerful down trend. (note "b" wave here i'm counting 3-3-5 and should soon end based on the fib's.)

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