Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Renko Count

I like this count. It allows for a lot of flexability.

I'm calling the trend line 1040 a bust at this point.

I think it is easier to see on the monthly chart that were are in a new longer-term trend down. We still may get some corrections soon but the down trend is established now in my openion from the march low to april high. Were heading down to the fib. retrace.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

And my long trade got slammed.

Now I'm just trying to exit with little damage as possible and trying to establish a new trade. All eyes are on the neckline of the daily SPX here. We are sitting right on the neckline and if this falls were in a longer-term down trend and will most likely only play short-term short plays and hold cash on corrections, but we will see. IT HAS NOT BROKE YET! Is the key. Tomorrow is going to be very crazy. Another chart is XLY which has clearly broken the up support line. I think we will get a retest of broken support on XLY before we continue down if that is the case.

SPX - Daily below:

Monday, June 28, 2010

Day 3 of long trade, down but not out.

Here is my current thought on what is happening in the market. Lot's of preasure both ways so sitting it out here is not a bad idea. I'm still long with a break even about 1080 on SPX, so i'm not hurting that much. I'm holding over night with MAJOR risk if we get new lows tomorrow open.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Trade update.

I exited my short today off the break of 1105 and holding cash. My real short longer-term trade turned positive today :). I took a 10% ding on the long position play on WSS but still up 35% for the month so I'm still doing well. Was up 50% this AM on WSS but thought we would have another high before going down.. I was wrong and I took the higher risk trade and didn't exit. Here is my current micro count.

Current Trade - Long

I went long yesterday and i'm down just a little here but holding for the target exit.  Second chart is hard support at 1105.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Longer Term Trade Setup

We are at a critical point in the break of the longer-term resistance trend line and establishing correction here. For a long count alt. Just make the blue "A" a "C" if we continue on this very tight up trend channel.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

New Day-Trade Setup

Long position trade setup. It has not happened yet and it is very likely we will break trend and then back test down to get below 1040 for the final 5th wave. Regardless, even if you have a bearish view longer-term a short correction here @ the 1040 battle win/lose is what i'm looking for.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Dow Theory??

Tran made new low but Dow did not.... I'm not too familar with Dow Theory, but wanted to point it out.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Renko update

NYA a different look

If you follow my work, I usually only post S&P 500 but I do watch other indexes especially if I'm questioning a trend channel or some formation on the S&P. Currently I think the market is a little more readable with NYA than the S&P 500. Looks like were in a bearish wedge with the trend channel (bearish) in question shortly if we continue the up momentum over the last 2 days. I would prefer to hold cash than to try to get little gains while the market bounces around this wedge.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Followup on day-trade

Possilbe exits this morning from the trade setup. Look for resistance here to hold or break for possible new short or long position.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Possible Day-Trade setup.

Won't be around to walk through the exit of this trade if it happens, if it breaks and you go short. I would exit the short position if the identified resistance line is broken. The break might not even occur so hold tight.